“American star economist Paul Krugman cracks hard nuts about President Trump, who threatens to disrupt the global economy with high import duties.=== And yet Europe should not make a trade deal, says Krugman, but should instead hit back hard."





" 'You have a strong negotiating position with ASML.'”

Is Donald Trump a master strategist? A president with an ingenious plan that few may understand, but that will ultimately unleash a new American golden age? One in which the United States no longer imports so much from Mexico, Canada, China or Europe, but produces more at home again?

After a hundred days of Trump's presidency, Paul Krugman (72) knows for sure: no, that's not Trump. He's doing it all wrong. Krugman should know, because international trade is precisely the subject for which he won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2008.

Yet he is known to the general public not so much for his academic work, but mainly for his contributions to the public debate. Krugman was a columnist for The New York Times for almost 25 years and wrote dozens of books. He showed himself to be a master in reducing complicated economic subjects to understandable proportions.

Krugman watched with dismay as Trump announced high import tariffs in April, taxes on goods made in other countries. A 145 percent tariff on some Chinese goods, as Trump is now proposing, would raise the price of a $10 T-shirt to $24.50. Such a price increase is often passed on directly to consumers.

Such levies are a 'huge shock', says Krugman in Rotterdam, where he is giving a lecture on world trade at the invitation of Erasmus University. 'The last time the US raised levies so much was in 1930, with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. At that time, the percentage went from around 3 to 20 percent. Smoot-Hawley is considered by economists to be the pinnacle of disastrous policy. Now Trump is threatening some countries with even higher percentages, at a time when there is much more trade. That makes the effect ten times as big as in the 1930s.'

That has a direct effect on the economy.

"Chinese ships that were headed to the US have turned around and sailed back. Some other tariffs have been paused, but no one knows what will happen in the future. Businesses are delaying investments and people are keeping their hands on their wallets. Trump could be the first person in history to single-handedly send the US economy into recession."

Although Krugman is a left-wing economist by American standards, he was a staunch advocate of free trade for most of his life. In the end, he argued, everyone benefits from this because it leads to cheaper products and more choice for consumers.

The economist has since backed off a bit . Trade is still good, says Krugman, but there are also disadvantages to globalization. For example, some Americans or Europeans lose their jobs because wages are lower in China or India.

What can Trump do to get the industry back on American soil?

'If you want more industry, you have to ask yourself first: what exactly do we want to produce? We will never go back to a time when 30 percent of the working population works in manufacturing. That is not necessary for a modern country. For example, we should not want to produce clothing: that is labor-intensive and not important for our autonomy. America should start producing other things: semiconductors, green technology, a few more cars.

'Putting factories and building an industry is not that complicated, we've done it before. Trump only has to look at his predecessor for inspiration. Joe Biden had all sorts of plans to stimulate industry with subsidies. The Chips Act, the Inflation Reduction Act and the Build Back Better Plan. They were all very nationalistic programs.'

The tariffs are being fiercely criticized by virtually all economists. How can the White House not care?

'Trump lives in a fantasy world. He dismisses news reports about his low popularity or the increase in grocery prices as fake news. And the people around him are yes-men. We read more and more in the American press about what is going on in the White House. It is a ping-pong of decisions. It seems as if the policy of the US, the most powerful country in the world, depends on who last spoke to Trump. Trump and his people are clowns, and that would be laughable if these men did not actually have power.

"The Republican Party has completely rallied behind its leader, who will not rebel. I am disappointed by the corporate response. The tech executives are docile. Just look at Jeff Bezos of Amazon, who is terrified of what Trump can do to his company."

Stock prices plunged, and so did the value of the dollar. There is open speculation about the role of the US in the financial system. Can such damage still be repaired?

'We have built a system for eighty years in which we try to trade with each other with as few trade restrictions as possible. Raising those import duties therefore not only says something about the credibility of the US, but also about the way in which we connect the world. And in doing so, he also tears apart the current economic world order, in which the US plays an important role.

"Even if Trump says tomorrow, 'Oops, my mistake,' everyone will remember that. And even if Trump is gone, people will still know that the American people are capable of electing such a leader. I don't think we can reclaim our place on the world stage without dealing with the legacy of this era. We're going to need some kind of truth and reconciliation commission to cleanse the United States of this madness."

How should the rest of the world respond to Trump's threats? Some countries are going straight to the negotiating table, others are hitting back in kind.

'I say to the European Union: make no concessions, make no deals. You can't make agreements with Trump. He is erratic and his promises are not sustainable for more than half an hour. Europe should not raise tariffs itself, but engage in selective retaliation. Europe can have quite a lot of influence on Trump. For example, all the high-quality equipment for the production of semiconductors is made here. America is really dependent on ASML. That gives you a strong negotiating position. Threaten to block some exports. Then there is a considerable chance that Trump will back down and this will all come to an end. Trump's most effective opponent is Trump himself. He does everything to destroy his own credibility.

'What you should not do is make a deal. If Trump has a deal, he will advertise it widely. Europe should not grant him such a symbolic victory. He will use it to try to convince the population that he has won. The biggest danger is that he will ultimately consolidate his power further by intimidating, perhaps even by manipulating the next elections. Such a situation is no longer unthinkable.'

How will this end? Can Trump continue his ways or will there be more resistance?

'We have to remember that Trump is becoming more and more extreme as time goes on. With his import tariffs. With the deportation of American citizens to gulags in El Salvador . I follow the news, but you can't really expect the average citizen to keep up with all that. And that's exactly why I'm pleasantly surprised at how quickly things are going now. People are currently talking about those deportations at American kitchen tables. The disillusionment has come faster than I expected. This week it turned out that Trump's popularity is declining, only about 40 percent of citizens think he's a good president. That percentage is even lower, I think: people find it difficult to say out loud that they were wrong.

"We're also seeing more and more institutions pushing back. Universities are pushing back, and judges are standing firm. Ultimately, it's going to be the citizens who speak out. I hope that enough decent people will speak out, express their disgust. There are more and more protests, where hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of people are coming together. It's a sign that the soul of America is not lost.

'The next few weeks will be exciting. Ordinary people will start to notice that fewer ships from China are docking. Stuff will become more expensive, shelves will become emptier. Then things can suddenly move quickly. In the fall, I expect the temperature to really rise: then there will be a full-blown panic . Who knows, mass protests may eventually lead to the impeachment of the president. We are now 100 days into the journey, but Trump still has more than 1,300 days to go. The question is: can America handle that?

'Maybe it won't come to that and we'll laugh Trump out of the White House. Just like with Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceau?escu. He gave endless speeches until people started laughing at him. I hope we get to that point. Trump and his people are fundamentally ridiculous people . Scary, but ridiculous. I'm also trying to keep laughing. Gallows humor is the only way to get through this.'





Questa mattina mi sono alzato
o bella ciao, bella ciao, bella ciao ciao ciao
questa mattina mi sono alzato
e ho trovato l'invasor.


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oh bella ciao, bella ciao, bella ciao ciao ciao
this morning I woke up
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